In a letter to the editor of the Business Guardian, which is published today on page A10, former People’s Partnership senator and minister, Mary King, in countering a contribution made in the Sunday BG, argues: “...with our small and open economy, diversification must be about becoming globally competitive in our new on-shore exports and these will have to compete with companies at the level of the technology frontier.”
At a more general and theoretical level, Mrs King, who is an economist, also stated: “Yet a nation’s companies must relentlessly improve their productivity if at the national level the country is to produce high and rising standard of living for its citizens.”
The letter suggests to me that Mrs King believes that there are elements within T&Ts non-energy, productive sector that are interested in, or capable of, becoming world class...by which one presumes she means the ability to produce a product or service in T&T that has a worldwide market, global appeal and universal brand recognition.
One also assumes that in order to achieve a worldwide market, global appeal or universal brand recognition, mostly with products, there must be interest by companies to "relentlessly improve their productivity.”
As a theoretical construct, it is accurate to argue that all companies—local, regional and international—should be interested in "relentlessly” improving their productivity, but from a practical point of view, is there the impetus for T&T companies to do so?"
Let us use as an example from one of our local food or beverage manufacturers and let us repeat the question: what is the impetus for any one of them to "relentlessly improve their productivity" if the following is true?
• As former Central Bank governor, Ewart Williams argued in a paper at UWI last month, the TT dollar appreciated in real terms by about 40 per cent between 2007 and 2014 and the “real appreciation is likely to be much larger if measured on the basis of unit labour costs.” This means that anything produced in T&T was at least 40 per cent less competitive in 2014 than it was in 2007, without regard being placed on the declining productivity
• Increasing productivity is of so little concern to the Government, people and manufacturers of T&T that measurements of productivity are not readily available or, when they are, reflective of current realities
• To a large extent, local manufacturers produce for well-defined and familiar local and regional markets
• Those markets, to a large extent, allow them to generate double-digit margins
• With the exception of Angostura, most of T&T’s food and beverage companies operate private companies (little accountability to anyone) in which the workers are well paid, in comparison to the national minimum wage, but to a large extent are non-unionised
• Because of the prevailing labour environment—especially the easy availability of Government make-work employment and the “crackdown” on “illegal” Caribbean workers—some workers can adopt the attitude that their manufacturing employer needs their labour more than they need the salary
• Manufacturers are domiciled in a country that offers them subsidised water, electricity and natural gas and very competitive telecom rates
• They are domiciled in a country that has a flat 25 per cent corporate tax, extremely lax tax enforcement AND a tendency to allow tax amnesties, which must create a tendency to moral hazard in some manufacturers. Further, they operate in an environment in which there is no property tax, no capital gains tax and quite generous tax incentives for the purchase of plant and equipment
• Their owners are among T&T's business elites, which allows them privileged access to the political elite and, more importantly, corporate information
• Access to foreign exchange is not a problem for them, partly because they generate it and also because of the point above
• The private owners of T&T’s manufacturing companies live very comfortably with their mansions in posh neighbourhoods, their homes “down the islands,” yachts, Miami/Toronto condos etc. Also these owners probably have "green-card" access to foreign boltholes in case T&T goes rogue on them (as it has done twice in the recent past, lest we forget)
The point is that in practice there are very few local companies that are interested in becoming globally competitive because they are doing just fine being locally and regionally "competitive."
This may be a very short-sighted view as the experience of the local garment industry, which has been wiped out by imports from China, (including for the production of mas) can be replicated in other parts of the manufacturing sector.
The obvious counter to that possibility is that garment manufacturing depends on scale and low labour costs, while other manufacturing (especially the food and beverage sector) depends on a combination of brand loyalty and just-in-time distribution to win customers.
But it would be an interesting graduate research thesis for some scholar to probe how the access to high-speed Internet, cable television, sky boxes and credit cards with high US dollar limits has transformed the shopping habits of T&T citizens.
I would argue that the exchange rate is important because, not only is it contributing to a lack of competitiveness of local production (Ewart Williams' point) but it is allowing anyone with a credit card to import anything from the world in a foreign currency and pay for it in TT dollars.
This would be an especially interesting exercise given the Central Bank's stout defence of the TT dollar, which along with T&T's higher inflation rate, is having a negative impact on the manufacturing sector's competitiveness.
This combination of factors—the Central Bank’s interventionist policy to keep the TT dollar stable plus the easy access to foreign goods—along with the Government’s fiscal policy decision to not impose substantive adjustment on T&T citizens will have the expected impact on T&T’s foreign reserves.
In other words, T&T’s manufacturing production is becoming less competitive, in real terms, over time, and the policy matrix chosen by the authorities contributes to making foreign products more accessible and more affordable.
For what one can only deduce are political reasons, the Central Bank is selling more US dollars to the market than it should, thereby running down the country's reserves, when it should be allowing the TT dollar to depreciate by determining what is an appropriate amount of US dollars to sell to the market, given the reduction in the supply of US dollars as a consequence of the collapse of T&T’s energy export prices.
What's the use of having an exchange rate that is supposed to be floating if it does not respond to changes in the supply and demand for the country's products and the supply of US dollars?
I ask again given the 2015 realities of T&T, what is the likelihood of some company in the productive sector "relentlessly improve their productivity" and seeking to become globally competitive?
Disclosure: I own shares in one of the few companies in T&T that can truthfully boast of having a worldwide market, global appeal and universal brand recognition. That company, of course, is Angostura Holdings Ltd and the product is Angostura Bitters.