As the Lower House finalised business yesterday, counting down to the upcoming Parliament recess —early July—MPs seemed to have shifted to battle mode for July 16 by-elections.
“(But) you were Education Minister for five years…!” Education Minister Anthony Garcia berated UNC’s Tim Gopeesingh for a repeated query whose answer Garcia—and the loudly rumbling PNM benches—felt Gopeesingh should have known.
Priming up and “pounding” by both sides has been on the increase amid the election climate. In Tuesday’s Senate, where Finance Minister Colm Imbert came under Opposition pressure on the Galleons Passage issue, Imbert was clearly irked having to respond to what he deemed “fake news”. Such was his annoyance, Senate President Christine Kangaloo cautioned his language repeatedly.
Composure also went AWOL in last Friday’s Opposition no-confidence debate against National Security Minister Edmund Dillon, who demanded UNC MP Barry Padarath, “shut up.”
Padarath got his own back yesterday, saying, “We’ve noticed in such motions against Ministers Dillon and Rohan Sinanan, Prime Minister Keith Rowley hasn’t participated to defend them.”
If there’s been distance between Rowley and his ministers on no confidence issues against them, his credos have included letting “chips fall where they may”. At last Friday’s Mt Hope “Conversations”, Rowley rerouted audience queries to the relevant ministers as they arose.
But if recent ministerial outbursts (“malkadi” in UNC Senator Wade Mark’s view concerning Imbert’s behaviour on Tuesday) signal “pressure” on Government, it’s not unexpected, pre-election.
Challenging term. Pressured public hardball Opposition scrutiny.
The ruling PNM might have won the 2016 Local Government polls easily, astride the wave of their 2015 general election victory. This week, PNM officials projected the July 16 Belmont East and Barataria polls will be won on election day based on machinery.
The polls are a three-way race among PNM, UNC and the 17-month-old Progressive Empowerment Party (PEP). The latter’s presence could indicate how successful a third party might be plus sentiment about Government and Opposition. Whether a low poll - which some expect may be changed by PEP’s offerings - remain ahead. Spotlight “fight”, however, is straight PNM/UNC.
For PNM, the polls will test a party in Government (with resources) battling downturn circumstances and unpopularity. Results will signal the success of PNM’s public messaging during the term and planners will have to hope for better numbers than in 2016 if Government’s boasts of good management in the past and present and future confidence by the public are to stand.
Same numbers as 2016 won’t help its post-poll message. Worse: less votes.
Officials are working towards a 43-45 per cent voter turnout (more than the 34.4 per cent of 2016) in a campaign where hopes are high that voters may be sympathetic to the work of PNM councillors Pernell Bruno (Barataria) and Darryl Rajpaul (Barataria East), whose deaths caused the polls.
This afternoon, ministers do a “Power Walk” in both seats. Election experts like Noel Garcia are supervising Barataria, which UNC lost by 350-odd votes in 2016 and particularly targets following perceived issues with Government by some Muslim Mohammedville voters.
Yesterday’s Anti-terrorism bill finalisation came on the eve of tonight’s functions by two Muslims groups who invited the PNM and UNC leaders. Both – whose stocks will be tested in polls - so far haven’t walked in the areas.
Also, PNM September internal polls where Rowley’s leadership is up for contest follows the by-elections whose results could impact on PNM’s.
UNC planners, hoping for 50-60 per cent voter turnout, agree machinery is key. Barataria campaigning’s been aggressive to ensure better mobilisation, which officials say was weak in 2016. Campaign managers are local and UNC’s chosen a fresh Belmont candidate, high profile in the area. Its 2016 candidate contested unsuccessfully twice.
Anything over 49 votes in Belmont – UNC’s 2016 tally – will show upward movement. UNC will be challenged to see if its public messaging against Government’s management is effective. If it fares worse than its 2016 figures - in a downturn, crime spiralling landscape unflattering to Government- hard Opposition rethink will be necessary.
Next couple weeks to July 16 could better reveal chances.
